COP29 to focus on finance as world off track to meet emissions targets

World leaders will gather next week in Baku, Azerbaijan for the United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP29, where they are expected to discuss how to channel billions of dollars to developing countries grappling with the climate crisis.

The gathering is being billed as the “finance COP,” with leaders slated to explore how live up to a 2023 pledge to transition away from fossil fuels and triple investments in renewable energy.

At the core of the talks in Baku will be what is known as the new collective and quantified goal on climate finance, which aims to set a target for climate-related financial transfers to developing countries. That funding is seen as crucial to helping nations to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change.

Any agreement would replace a target set in 2009, when developed countries pledged to provide US$100 billion annually by 2020. Not only was the deadline missed by two years, but US$100 billion intended for all climate action is woefully insufficient to cover the required funding for adaptation action, as continuously highlighted in UNEP’s Adaptation Gap Report series.

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“It’s a sad irony that the developing world, which has done the least to contribute to the climate crisis, bears the brunt of climate disasters and has the least resources to respond,” said Dechen Tsering, the Acting Interim Director of the Climate Change Division of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). “At COP29, we need to see tangible progress on financing for developing nations, which is essential for ensuring the most vulnerable are not left behind.”

COP29 follows the release of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2024, which warned that without more ambitious cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, the world is on track for a temperature increase of 2.6°C-3.1°C this century, a rise that would be “debilitating” for the planet.

The report found countries must slash emissions by 42 per cent by 2030 in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, one of the key goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change.

Another finance-related issue that will be discussed in Baku is the  loss and damage fund, which was launched at COP28 in Dubai last year. The mechanism is designed to channel financing to countries suffering from the consequences of climate change, such as the loss of human lives, damage to infrastructure and the failure of crops. The finer details of the fund need to be established in Baku before the money starts flowing to nations in need.

“So far, we have seen financial commitments of nearly US$700 million, which is not nearly enough and it remains to be seen if this shortfall will be addressed in Baku,” Tsering said.

According to UNEP’s Adaptation Gap Report 2024, international public adaptation finance flows to developing countries increased from US$ 22 billion in 2021 to US$28 billion in 2022, yet that is still a fraction of the US$187-359 billion needed annually in adaptation finance.

In 2025, countries under the Paris Agreement are required to deliver updated plans for how they will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. COP29 is expected to feature a call for these pledges, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), to be bold.

“The next NDCs must deliver a quantum leap in ambition if they are to keep the Paris Agreement temperature targets alive,” Tsering said.

COP29 will see world leaders, negotiators, civil society groups and observers descend on Baku, to negotiate, network, and share solutions. Hundreds of side-events are set to take place on the margins of negotiations.

Observers expect there will also be a number of pledges and declarations – endorsed by governments and non-government stakeholders – on everything from reducing methane emissions from organic waste to enhancing climate action in the tourism sector.

On the final days of the conference, negotiators are expected to develop what is known as the “final text”, an overarching agreement on how the world plans to address climate change.

At COP28 last year, nearly 200 parties vowed to move away from fossil fuels. It marked the first time a COP final decision had mentioned fossil fuels, which are  by far the leading driver  of the climate crisis. This year, there are hopes that negotiators will agree on similarly ambitious targets, despite a complex geopolitical backdrop. “It won’t be easy,” Tsering said. “But as UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report made clear this year, inaction is unthinkable.”