Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Nations must increase adaptation efforts, starting with finance commitment at COP29

As climate impacts intensify and hit the world’s most vulnerable hardest, the Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come hell and high water, from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), finds that nations must dramatically increase climate adaptation efforts, starting with a commitment to act on finance at COP29.

Global average temperature rise is approaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and the latest estimates from UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report put the world on course for a catastrophic rise of 2.6-3.1°C this century without immediate and major cuts to greenhouse gas emissions. Released just ahead of the COP29 climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, the report finds that there is therefore an urgent need to significantly scale-up adaptation this decade to address rising impacts. But this is being hampered by the huge gap that exists between adaptation finance needs and current international public adaptation finance flows.

“Climate catastrophe is hammering health, widening inequalities, harming sustainable development, and rocking the foundations of peace,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a video message. “The vulnerable are hardest hit. And taxpayers are footing the bill. While the purveyors of all this destruction – particularly the fossil fuel industry – reap massive profits and subsidies.”

“We need developed countries to double adaptation finance to at least $40 billion a year by 2025 – an important step to closing the finance gap. We need to unlock a new climate finance goal at COP29,” he added.

International public adaptation finance flows to developing countries increased from US$22 billion in 2021 to US$28 billion in 2022: the largest absolute and relative year-on-year increase since the Paris Agreement. This reflects progress towards the Glasgow Climate Pact, which urged developed nations to at least double adaptation finance to developing countries from about US$19 billion in 2019 by 2025. However, even achieving the Glasgow Climate Pact goal would only reduce the adaptation finance gap, which is estimated at US$187-359 billion per year, by approximately 5 per cent.

“Climate change is already devastating communities across the world, particularly the most poor and vulnerable. Raging storms are flattening homes, wildfires are wiping out forests, and land degradation and drought are degrading landscapes,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “People, their livelihoods and the nature upon which they depend are in real danger from the consequences of climate change. Without action, this is a preview of what our future holds and why there simply is no excuse for the world not to get serious about adaptation, now.”

As developing countries experience increasing loss and damage, they are already struggling with increasing debt burdens. Effective and adequate adaptation, incorporating fairness and equity, is thus more urgent than ever. The report calls for nations to step up ambitions by adopting a strong new collective quantified goal on climate finance at COP29 and including stronger adaptation components in their next round of climate pledges, or nationally determined contributions, due early next year ahead of COP30 in Belém, Brazil.

On planning, 171 countries now have at least one national adaptation planning instrument – i.e., policy, strategy or plan – in place. Of the 26 countries without a national planning instrument 10 show no indication of developing one; seven of these countries are conflict-affected or fragile states and will require significant tailored support if the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience target on planning is to be achieved by 2030. Also, the potential effectiveness of national adaptation plans (NAPs) from developing countries is mixed, pointing to a need for dedicated support to ensure adaptation planning leads to meaningful action in these contexts.

Adaptation actions are on a general upward trend, but one that is not commensurate with the challenge. In addition, evaluations of projects implemented with support from the financing entities under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) show that approximately half are either not satisfactory or unlikely to be sustainable without project funds in the longer term. Countries report progress in implementing their NAPs but find that the scale and speed at which adaptation is happening is inadequate in light of mounting climatic risks. Overall, increased efforts will be needed to meet the implementation target of the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience.

An increase in finance

Given the scale of the challenge, bridging the adaptation finance gap will also require innovative approaches to mobilize additional financial resources. Stronger enabling factors, new approaches and financial instruments are key for unlocking adaptation finance, for both the public and private sectors.

Enabling factors for the public sector include the creation of funds and financing facilities, climate fiscal planning and climate budget tagging, mainstreaming in national development planning and medium-term expenditure frameworks, and adaptation investment planning. These could be supported by reforms being proposed for international finance institutions and multilateral development banks.

Private sector enabling factors include new approaches and instruments that seek to de-risk private-sector finance using public finance. These can be supported by adaptation accelerators and platforms.

Adaptation financing also needs to shift from reactive, incremental, and project-based actions to more anticipatory, strategic and transformational adaptation, otherwise it will not deliver the scale or types of adaptation needed. However, this requires action in areas that are harder to finance: to support this, there is a need to use available international public finance much more strategically.

Additionally, the question of who pays for adaptation is not being adequately addressed. In many financing arrangements, the ultimate costs of adaptation are borne by developing countries; this may help bridge the finance gap, but it is not in line with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, or with the polluter pays principle.

Capacity-building and technology

In addition to finance, there is a need to strengthen capacity-building and technology transfer to improve the effectiveness of adaptation actions – which is in line with the focus on means of implementation at COP29.

References to capacity and technology needs are nearly ubiquitous in UNFCCC documents, with a focus on water, food and agriculture. However, efforts to meet these needs are often uncoordinated, expensive and short term. There is also limited evidence that these efforts are benefiting marginalized and under-represented groups. Several factors diminish the effectiveness of technology transfer. Among the most prevalent are economic and financial constraints – such as high upfront investment costs, difficulties in obtaining loans, and legal and regulatory frameworks requiring more supportive domestic policies.

The report provides recommendations for improvement in this regard:

Interventions should mobilize existing capacities, provide a balanced emphasis on technologies and enabling conditions, and place gender equality and social inclusion considerations at their centre.

A more robust evidence base is needed, including evidence from monitoring and evaluation on the capacity and technology needs, which approaches work, and their actual costs.

Capacity-building and technology transfer plans should support adaptation across sectors, scales and development priorities.

Adaptation strategies should be developed based on a holistic understanding of the needs rather than from the perspective of pushing a particular technology, making them part of broader development strategies.